The January employment report was released today. The headline unemployment rate rose from 4.7% to 4.8%, but I really don’t pay attention to that in this analysis. The employed percent of population (ePOP) rose from 62.4% to 62.5%. That is what I pay attention so let’s dive into the numbers.
To calculate the ePOP, you need the Employment Level and the Population. Surprisingly, the employment level fell by 1.271 million people, but even more surprisingly, the population fell by 660 thousand. There is a note in the release stating the Census Bureau updated their estimates and the Labor Department followed. With that, it seems clear this should be the baseline month for the beginning of the Trump administration. We will start with the level of 150.527 million employed people as we watch the next four years to see how well he reaches his target of 25 million new jobs.