October 2015 Ten Year Yield

The yield on the ten-year Treasury has stalled (opens in new tab / window) for some time now. The passages between levels have become very short and the changes very modest. I have one adviser who says the higher lows indicate a major reversal is ahead. Another adviser says it is simply a bear reversal in the on-going long-term trend lower. I don’t mind the difference of opinion on the trend of the yield, but both opinions are based on different views of the economy. One thinks there are positive signs of a stronger economy and the other sees a recession ahead.

i generally prefer to have opposing views which lead me to keep a balanced portfolio. I get concerned when both opinions have the same conclusion. I choose these advisers because one is is pessimistic in that if one part of the economy is off, then the whole system is in jeopardy. The other is generally optimistic since the resiliency of the economy means little improvements have a lengthy and profoundly positive influence on investor behavior.

And still we wait on the Federal Reserve.

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Author: dmcnic

Educated as an economist, I now work as an Analytical Professional for a manufacturing firm. I have have a second job as a part-time lecturer at the University of Washington in Bothell. While all baseball interests me, the Mariners are my home town team. Married with one dog.

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