Ten-Year Yield 20150109

I know I just created a horrible title for a blog post, but I needed to put a date in the title since it looks like this could be a year that I post frequently about the ten-year yield. I have been following the ten-year yield in the US for a few years now and this year I made it part (well, it is part of a formula) of my indicator watch list. I wanted to mention it specifically after this week. The yield moved from 2.12% to 1.97%. That is a meaningful move because it is the lowest yield we have recently seen. On a technical basis, it also means we should continue to see lower yields until we test the 1.63% yield from May 2013. On the graph I have made, I have changed the color to red indicating this is a transition period that began on December 24, 2014 with a yield of 2.26%. We have seen lower yields almost every day since that date. With the recent decrease in yields across Europe, the terrorist attacks in France, and increase speculation about Greece not meeting ECB goals and exiting the Euro, it shouldn’t surprise us to see the move into treasuries. The move from the current rate of 1.97% to the low of 1.63% is a long road and it seems there will need to be more than technical analysis to continue the downward trend.


Author: dmcnic

Educated as an economist, I now work as an Analytical Professional for a manufacturing firm. I have have a second job as a part-time lecturer at the University of Washington in Bothell. While all baseball interests me, the Mariners are my home town team. Married with one dog.

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