Scoring Runs

Table 1. A Different Team
Date Runs per Game Record
June 28 3.58 34-45
July 28 5.35 16-10

We are within a couple of games of the two-thirds mark of the season. The Mariners have scored 422 runs. Today is an off-day and I promised an update. Table 1 shows the difference after Nick Franklin and Brad Miller arrived and began playing full-time. The team sits at 422 runs scored after 105 games played.

While the team has settled down from the blistering pace as shown in the previous post, the average runs per game is now up to 4.02 for the season. Table 2 shows the updated projections. I still think the likelihood of the final total is between the 651 runs scored because of the current average per game and 726 runs scored because of the short-term change. Something changed after June 28th and this is a different team. There are 57 games remaining. I expect Franklin and Miller to slow down since this is their first six-month season. I also wonder when Raul Ibanez slows down (hint: it may have already happened since he created 1.6 runs in the past ten games). Michael Morse should be back soon, but that simply causes a problem of too many players for the outfield. Kyle Seager and Kendrys Morales may prove to be the foundation that carries the team closer to my projected runs scored.

Table 2. The Projections
Runs per Game Total Runs
3.58 626
4.02 651
5.35 726

The team is off to Boston and Baltimore for a six-game road trip. The team has 33 games left on the road and has only scored 3.90 runs per game. That has resulted in a 21-27 record. While the runs scored has been higher lately, that will need to continue as both host teams are playing for a playoff berth.

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Author: dmcnic

Educated as an economist, I now work as an Analytical Professional for a manufacturing firm. I have have a second job as a part-time lecturer at the University of Washington in Bothell. While all baseball interests me, the Mariners are my home town team. Married with one dog.

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