Run Production

Back on June 28th, I made a prediction the Mariners would end the season with 697 runs scored. They had just brought up Brad Miller to play shortstop and I expected the difference in run generation between him and Brendan Ryan would significantly increase the team’s offense.

Table 1. Status
Runs Scored Games Played Average
283 79 3.58
100 17 5.88

It has been 17 games since that prediction and I was not optimistic enough. The increase in runs scored by 2.3 runs per game is quite extraordinary with the addition of just one player. The increase in runs scored is enough to generate a 10-7 record in that span. To provide some perspective on this 17 game stretch, in the 79 games before Brad Miller arrived, the most runs scored by the Mariners in any 17-game stretch was 77.

Table 2. Projections
Run Rate Final Runs Scored
3.58 619
3.99 646
5.88 771

With this being a weekend and I have the inclination to avoid school work, I thought it was time to update the status of my 697 runs scored projection and you can see that in Table 2. If the team reverts to the prior production rate, they will score 619 runs. Clearly, a disappointment. The current runs scored per game average is 3.99 and this will result in 646 runs scored. You would have to go back to the 2007 team for a higher runs scored total. If we get optimistic and say the current stretch is the new baseline of expectations, the team will score 771 runs.

I’ll continue to update this periodically. Maybe I should target July 29th which is the next off-day.

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Author: dmcnic

Educated as an economist, I now work as an Analytical Professional for a manufacturing firm. I have have a second job as a part-time lecturer at the University of Washington in Bothell. While all baseball interests me, the Mariners are my home town team. Married with one dog.

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